The Ghost Haunting Arne Slot

Almost everything has gone perfectly for Liverpool under Arne Slot. A small reversion to the mean on a single metric and things might not be so rosy though.

Kenny Dalglish with Lurch the butler and a fearsome neck-biter

Liverpool beat Brighton 3-2 in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. It took new head coach Arne Slot to a record of 12 wins, one draw and one loss with the Reds.

Seven of the victories were secured with a margin of at least two goals. The totals scored and conceded read 31 and nine respectively. Only in the last two matches have Liverpool not led the expected goals for the game by at least 0.4, with the average for the season a very healthy +1.1 per match.

That will ensure a club wins a lot of games. Twelve out of 14, by the looks of things. The shift from last season to this perfectly illustrates Rafa Benitez’ blanket analogy regarding balancing a team between defence and attack.

“The ‘short blanket’… if you cover your head, you have your feet cold, but if you cover your feet, you have your head cold.”

Liverpool’s average xG difference has not shifted from 2023/24 to this term. What has happened is that 0.4 more is being prevented at the back while the same amount has been lost from the front. It might be time to dig out a pair of bed socks, Rafa.

This can be viewed in two ways. A more solid team is less likely to lose as it concedes fewer high value chances. Does it have enough going the other way if it needs it though? Nottingham Forest created very little at Anfield but managed to score and were able to see the game out in relative comfort.

Despite this cooling off in attack, the value of the shots the Reds are taking is improving. In terms of Opta-defined big chances¹ with penalties excluded, Liverpool have averaged 3.5 per game under Slot, up 0.3 on last season. Keep in mind that the Manchester City side of 2019/20 are the only one to go above the higher mark in a completed Premier League season in the data era.

If everything sounds too good to be true, it likely isn’t. Based on opposition points-per-game average, the Reds have had a harder league campaign to date than either City or Aston Villa, two of the other teams in the top four, while every club they have faced in a cup competition is in the top 42 in the world, per Opta. There is one thing which could prove very costly with just a very slight change in performance down the line though.