What a day to launch a newsletter. If you’ve seen my tweet about it, you’ll know I don’t even know what this is going to be exactly, nor how frequently I’ll post. I just wanted to have something in place in case the bird app crashed to earth with little-to-no notice. It’s nice to keep in touch, after all.
Anyway, earlier today we had the draw for the next round of the Champions League, and then the news broke that FSG might be looking to sell Liverpool. I’ll leave better informed people to comment on the latter and instead take a quick look at the Group Stage stats for the eight ties which lie in wait next February/March.
It’s hardly a surprise that in each case the group winner has better underlying expected goal numbers than the runner-up with whom they’ve been paired. There are, however, some ties which are far closer in this regard than others.
And the third closest is Liverpool vs. Real Madrid. This might also catch your eye as the only clash where the underdog has the better shot difference. While this initially looks promising, a closer inspection reveals the Reds had the second worst chance quality among these 16 teams, and only two sides gave up better opportunities on average at the back. Their issues have not been exclusively within the Premier League.
But February is a long way away. Who knows where any of us will be by then, or which financial behemoth will own Liverpool by the time the ties roll around.