You have to fear for a team that concedes five goals in a home game. Liverpool did so against Real Madrid and I worry about them on an hourly basis.
At least the Reds fell foul of their nemesis side, the defending champions of Spain and Europe. Leeds United allowed five in 31 minutes to a team managed by Roy Hodgson. It’s amazing the club hasn’t been shut down, to be honest.
But it was a strange old game. In the opening 15 minutes of the contest, Javi Gracia’s boys had six shots (one a big chance), with three on target; while they took the lead shortly afterwards, their statistics for the remaining hour-and-a-quarter were five (none) and four respectively. They might have fallen away like a wet cake but Leeds flew out of the traps last weekend.
The Reds will need to be hugely wary of this possibility when they travel to Elland Road on Monday evening. At least Jürgen Klopp won’t be ambushed with questions about the European Super League as he was in the corresponding match two years ago to the week. Liverpool failing to win will lead to questions he has faced countless times in 2022/23, though, namely regarding the Reds’ shortcomings on the road.
And if the visitors start slowly, which may offer Leeds all the encouragement they need, few people would be surprised. Klopp’s men have conceded seven times in the opening 10 minutes of Premier League matches this term, the joint-most along with Bournemouth.
They deserve a slither of credit for winning two and drawing two of the games in question, but in one of the victories they’d scored first anyway (against Southampton) and in the other they needed two own goals from a man who looks like Sideshow Bob through choice.
As anyone who has watched Liverpool regularly this season will know, it could also have been worse. Alisson Becker has saved Opta-defined big chances from Danny Welbeck, Miguel Almirón and Kai Havertz in the opening 12 minutes of matches this term.
It’s a truly ugly picture. The 20 top flight teams have collectively delivered 120 quarter-hour-long sections of their matches this season and in terms of xG conceded, only six of them are worse than what Liverpool have served up in the first 15 minutes. Here are the worst 10 examples.
Only Bournemouth are also in double figures for xG in the opening 15 minutes this season, and the figures they and Liverpool have recorded are akin to what exhausted, bad teams allow in the closing stages of games.
Even more worrying is the Reds’ xG per shot figure, as it’s over double the value of an average goal attempt in the Premier League. Understat carries data from the 2014/15 campaign onwards, and in the nine available seasons this is the highest chance quality quarter-hours, for or against, that Liverpool have seen (and there’s 108 from which to pick).
Even if they don’t concede another shot in this time period in their remaining nine matches - which won’t happen, but for the sake of argument - then it will still be the worst sixth of a game they’ve had defensively since records began.
We can frame this data however we like, it will remain appalling. But here’s perhaps the most sickening format: Liverpool have allowed more xG in the opening 15 minutes of their 29 games this season than they did in the first half hour of all 38 in either 2018/19 or 2019/20. Barring a miracle, they’ll top last season’s figure too.
Whether a team concedes in the early exchanges or not, the period sets the tone for the match. Teams who get a good chance know it’s likely others will follow, and that has certainly proved to be the case for the Reds. Frailty has soaked into their DNA; it won’t be easy to get out.
If Leeds start as well as they did against Palace and Liverpool deliver their general level of performance early on, it will be a long Monday night for Kopites.