Fulham beat Chelsea 2-1 on Thursday evening, a result which took them above Liverpool and into sixth in the league table. According to FiveThirtyEight’s expected goal data, it was the most unjust victory in the Premier League this season.
It was fitting that this was the result which took Marco Silva’s side above the Reds, as it continued a theme which has affected both clubs in 2022/23. Determining which team deserves to win a game is tricky. I use an xG margin of greater than 0.4; that way, you get a realistic amount of draws, and it means the ‘winner’ was better by the equivalent of one Opta-defined clear-cut chance, which feels about right.
By this measure, Fulham have been the luckiest team in the Premier League this term, with Liverpool the most harshly treated.
The campaign is only half way through, lots can change between now and the end of May. Fulham and Liverpool are among the main candidates to see a change of fortunes though there are no guarantees it will occur. The ‘xG A’ column illustrates why the Reds may not see the improvement their attack merits.
We shall see. A bet on Bournemouth to finish 20th looks appealing, that much is clear.
Other work highlights
I have written 10 Liverpool related articles for Reach publications (the Echo and Liverpool.com) as usual this week. Links to them all can be found here, but here are my three favourites.
Jürgen Klopp noted after his side drew 2-2 with Wolves that they didn’t win enough challenges. He was correct, and the issue has been a theme of the campaign.
Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah are very different forwards. How they have dealt with opposition defensive errors in 2022/23 perhaps sums this up best.
The stats of Liverpool’s individual midfielders haven’t changed much since last season. Their collective figures tell a different story though.
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This will almost always be a song. This week: the glorious return of Everything But The Girl. Enjoy your weekend, friends.