I’ve been appearing on Blood Red’s Analysing Anfield podcast recently and the first thing I was asked during my debut was to explain what I thought was the reason for Liverpool’s performance issues this season.
How long have you got?
I gave various reasons, not least that constant injury problems depriving Jürgen Klopp of an average of 6.3 players per game has led to near constant changing to the line-up. Arsenal have made the fewest amendments to their starting XI between league games this season (0.9 per game) with Newcastle (1.3) in second place, and both are having better than expected campaigns. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
(Everton are third, but if I mention that here then it rather undermines my point, doesn’t it? Still, Liverpool have made the second most changes, behind Chelsea, and neither of those clubs have been in great shape in 2022/23).
But more than anything, I laid the Reds’ issues at the door of their high press, or the relative lack thereof. Everything great about Klopp’s football stems from there; his sides defend from the front while using their counter-press as their greatest playmaker. Who needs an expensive number 10 when you can regain possession to do the same job? Right, John?
And here’s another way in which the Gunners and Magpies are similar and at the other end of the spectrum from the Reds. Those sides have respectively averaged 1.1 and 1.4 more final third possession regains per game than last season, whereas Liverpool have seen a colossal drop of 2.1 on 2021/22.
In fairness to them, their figure of 7.6 last season is a record for the seven campaigns for which the Premier League data is available. When no other side has topped 6.6, a downturn from that lofty height was probably inevitable.
This sort of thing has happened before, albeit to a lesser extent. When the structure of the side disintegrated thanks to a severe injury crisis in 2020/21, Liverpool’s rate for regains in the attacking third dropped from 6.6. to 5.5 (and it can’t be entirely coincidental that this matches the figure for this term).
However, the midfield – which was basically comprised of the same players, Gini Wijnaldum aside – was two years younger and could cope with a little extra opposition pressure better than it can now. It’s no surprise that the aging and break-up of the club’s legendary front three has had a huge impact here.
In 2017/18, the trio of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah collectively averaged 2.4 final third regains per 90. They upped their efforts to 2.6 the following year, and improved again to 2.9 in the campaign in which Liverpool ended their 30 year wait for number 19. A drop inevitably followed in 2020/21 but they were still all posting 0.8 or 0.9 individually.
Yet now Salah is the top man on 0.6, the same rate that Darwin Núñez is contributing. It matches his figure with Benfica, so he may improve with more time under Klopp’s tutelage, just as his Egyptian colleague did five years ago. Cody Gakpo hasn’t played enough to register on the stats yet but his 0.9 average from this season with PSV Eindhoven should be a good addition.
You may be reading this thinking that the shifts are relatively small and no big deal. The problem is that opposition possession fluctuates too. The Reds are not keeping control of the ball anywhere near as well – though they took a turn for the better at Elland Road last time out – and opposing teams are more comfortable in their defensive zone.
Last season, sides facing Liverpool averaged 30.6 touches in their defensive third for each time the Reds regained possession there, but that number stands at 40.8 in 2022/23. The opposition are more relaxed, less pressured and harried, and can build from there. While it’s impossible to mount a heavy defence of Liverpool’s midfield at the moment, greater protection from the front would undoubtedly help their cause.