It says something for Liverpool’s recent attacking form at Anfield that they generated 3.4 expected goals against Nottingham Forest and that was their lowest figure from the last three home games.
But how their goal attempts came about on Saturday was particularly interesting. The Reds only had five shots in open play, with just three in the box and only one of those being taken with feet. One of the quintet was at least an Opta-defined clear-cut chance (when a long ball from Ibrahima Konaté found Diogo Jota’s head) but almost everything positive Liverpool did came from dead ball situations.
The match showed how a defensive plan can simply pass a problem along. A Statsbomb article last week highlighted that Forest are among the top teams in Europe’s big five leagues for packing their penalty area with defenders and relying on them to block shots.
As sensible a strategy as that sounds for a newly promoted side, that level of low-block defending inevitably leads to a lot of set play opportunities for your opponents. And so it proved; Liverpool’s total of 13 set play shots was their most in a league game since at least the summer of 2017, and only the third time they reached double figures in that period. Or to frame it another way: only six other teams in the 2022/23 Premier League average at least 13 shots per game in total, never mind from corner and free-kick situations alone.
The three goals Liverpool scored were certainly on the ‘sublime to ridiculous’ scale. Diogo Jota had the fourth highest xG value headed chance the Reds have had in the last six seasons - it didn’t top that Divock Origi derby winner - before the Portuguese forward mysteriously had the freedom of the Kop end penalty box for his second.
Mohamed Salah’s goal was a real collector’s item, as it came from a free-kick which had been awarded for a foul he suffered. Can you imagine?
(There may be a closer look at his numbers on this front coming later this week.)
The trio of strikes continued a theme of the campaign for Liverpool in that they have been very streaky when it comes to converting set play chances. They scored five in three games early in the season (including a 98th minute winner against Newcastle), then later bagged four in three games as October turned into November.
But they also had a spell of scoring just two in a 20-game run (and the pair came in successive matches, naturally) prior to Saturday, meaning they topped that half-season run in the space of 23 second half minutes.
And while the goals have come and gone, it’s worth noting the Reds currently have their highest xG per shot average for set piece shots for any of the last nine seasons. With three of the worst five teams for conceding set play goals still to face (and Forest are also in that group), the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson have the potential to boost their assist tallies.
Before their trip to Anfield, Forest had scored just five away goals, never more than one in a game and had netted just once at the home of a side currently above 15th in the table. Thankfully for Liverpool, the ‘London buses’ which turned up on Saturday and threatened to derail their bid to finish fifth didn’t ultimately cost them. The Reds hadn’t conceded a deflected shot since the opening weekend, yet allowed two in 16 minutes to Forest. They’ve experienced worse in the past, suffering three times in their 7-2 loss to Aston Villa, but while they clearly could have defended better, the luck was not on their side.
There was a lot of traffic on the Anfield pitch on Saturday afternoon. Forest parked a bus in their box and each side rode one to score their goals. Liverpool will take theirs to West Ham on Wednesday.