In a rollercoaster season, Liverpool have just had a rollercoaster week. Or at least they did in an attacking sense.
Per FBRef, they generated just 0.9 expected goals in their 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace, the first time in 31 games in league and Europe they’ve dropped below the one mark this season. But they followed that up with 2.5 xG against Wolves in midweek, their fourth best effort of the campaign.
The positive swing of 1.6 expected goals was the second largest from game-to-game the Reds have mustered in 2022/23. But the largest (2.0) occurred when they went from travelling to Old Trafford to hosting a newly promoted side, a circumstance where an upturn was inevitable.
With Liverpool playing at Selhurst Park then Anfield in the last seven days, some improvement was always likely. However, while Manchester United and Bournemouth are at opposite ends of the xG league table, Crystal Palace and Wolves are side-by-side, one point and one expected goal apart. You can’t get too much closer to effectively playing the same side twice. Yet the Reds’ offensive performance contrasted hugely between the two fixtures.
Home advantage clearly plays a role, though perhaps not as much as you might think: the average Premier League team has amassed 1.63 expected goals in front of their own fans and 1.31 on the road this term.
And a model can’t account for everything, of course. Jürgen Klopp selected Liverpool’s oldest starting XI for a league fixture since 1953 at Palace, then the second youngest of 2022/23 in the following match. That alone, plus playing at Anfield, likely accounts for a notable chunk of the difference.
But the xG chasm got me thinking: what would happen if Liverpool played Liverpool? We can’t account for line-up changes or tactical decisions or rest since the last match or the weather or any other pertinent factors. Using the xG model, we can simulate Liverpool home playing Liverpool away though.
So what would be the outcome? Entertaining carnage, and on a scale not seen elsewhere in the other match-ups across the Premier League. Here’s how all 20 teams would do if forced to play themselves from another dimension.
While most teams are playing out theoretical 1-1 draws, Liverpool are looking at delivering a 3-2 thriller. But they also have comfortably the widest margin between their home and away selves, and the last week has proved that in emphatic style.
Looking ahead to Sunday, notice too that United have one of the wider gaps between playing at their ground or on the road. Thank goodness the game is at Anfield.
Other work highlights
Links for all my work from this week can be found here, but here are my three favourites.
Liverpool have five clean sheets in their last six league matches, and each was secured with a different central defensive partnership. Weird, no?
‘LiVARpool’ were harshly treated by Paul Tierney this week. A closer look at his record shows why Klopp has a problem with the Wigan-born whistler.
The Reds fielded a very old side against Crystal Palace and the history of teams doing so to a similar extent does not bode well.
Share the things you love
I recently cancelled my Netflix subscription but made sure to watch All Quiet On The Western Front before my access expired this week. Powerful, powerful stuff which will stay with me for a very long time. Have yourselves a strong weekend.