14 Comments
Oct 1Liked by Andrew Beasley

Truly an Enigma this Darwin. Still feels like a matter of time before that deluge of goals starts pouring in. As always fabulous read!

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Thanks, much appreciated.

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Oct 2·edited Oct 2Liked by Andrew Beasley

If we had signed Nunez for half the price his stats would be seen more favourably. Yet his Benfica form was outstanding.the season before. A few years on that 30+ goal season was the blip and the current version of Nunez, a big chance misser, is his truer form. This is a very good piece.

I think Liverpool is not Benfica - stylistically, linguistically, technically, and physically. Nunez does not suit our style, he cannot speak good English, he is not technically consistent, but his aggression does offer an edge at times.

In reality, the problem is whether Nunez is a technical and consistent fit with Klopp and now Slot's Liverpool. I agree he has done a decent job but at potentially £85m he is not producing the expected results in Liverpool’s business model.

None of that is Nunez’s fault. I think he trains well, stays fit most of the time, and does not disappear in matches. He excites our fans and we love the perceived underdog. However, your numbers show he is not.

The problem is expectation. When Liverpool spent such a large amount of money we expected eventual success. Torres, Suarez, and Salah. All turnkey players with the Uruguayan's fee a sure fire bet on the next in line.

But the internal power struggle Klopp won makes Nunez a product of that period. The centre forward position was redefined by Liverpool, when we played Roberto Firmino as a false nine.

Brendon Rogers had to depart to get the best out of Firmino. The intriguing question is whether Jurgen Klopp had to depart to get the best out of Nunez. The signs against Bournemouth, even without a goal, were good.

Nunez is not going anywhere for want of a suitor willing to pay our price. He's still young, fast, improving, and playing under a manager known to mould talent. But will he ever be technically good enough?

Only time will tell. Six strikers. Three positions. Jota favoured. Gakpo improving. Diaz delivering. Salah undroppable. Chiesa the calculated bet. Nunez needs a good start to usurp Jota whether through form or fitness.

Nunez can do it. Gakpo can do it. Chiesa can do it. That is the reality of being a striker at Liverpool in 2024. Torres, Suarez, or Salah never faced this much challenge in their formative years.

Therefore Nunez has big challenges to overcome. He faces significant competition, a more technical style of football, and now being seen through the Edwards lens. Has he got the character and tools to succeed?

These stats show what Liverpool’s analysts probably know already. If you dig a bit deeper, as you have Beez, it shows Darwin Nunez is a better player than we think. Does that fit Liverpool now and the future? That's up to Arne Slot, Richard Hughes, and the transfer market.

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"Only time will tell. Six strikers. Three positions. Jota favoured. Gakpo improving. Diaz delivering. Salah undroppable. Chiesa the calculated bet. Nunez needs a good start to usurp Jota whether through form or fitness."

A beautiful way of summing up the forward line, mate. Salah is the interesting one in many ways... for how long does he remain a guaranteed pick? Not that Nunez is likely to replace him on the right, but it's one to watch.

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Oct 1Liked by Andrew Beasley

Those readers on TTT know I am a Darwin fan, from his style of play to his style in general; he's a very cool dude. But I'm not blind to the fact he is not scoring enough goals consistently.

I have also felt from the beginning of his LFC career expectations were a little high, Haaland arrived in the PL and of course Darwin has a pony tail.

He'd had a great season for Benfica and was a rough, chaotic player with height and power, so many great assets. Haaland is a one off goal machine, but a thoroughly dislikable man. Then of course who else was tall, lean and had a pony tail at Liverpool? Andy Carroll, who had many similar elements to his play was a flop, now turning out for fourth tier Bordeaux.

Take away Haaland, yes, please do, and Darwin doesn't look such a failure, as per your comparison stats, Beez. It's too late to cut his hair as he seems universally known as shit Andy Carroll. When really he isn't, he's better with more goals, he stays fit and keeps off the booze.

Players don't necessarily have to be the best to be someone's favourite, it can be just a vibe too. And I get that with Darwin, but good to see real stats backing Slot's idea to keep him and retool him. I hope for us all it becomes a success. Thanks, Beez

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I find the 'shit Andy Carroll' chant hilarious. Assuming (as you have to) that Darwin has never heard of him, how is that comparison going to hurt him?!

A record transfer fee inevitably brings pressure and expectation anyway, so signing the same summer as Haaland was doubly unfortunate in that sense. But as I said in the post, his goal stats are matching the likes of Firmino and Mané, even if they brought more to the team overall. He's far from a flop.

I fear we'll never see the best of him but I'm not giving up hope either.

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Oct 1Liked by Andrew Beasley

Darwin is a lethal weapon.

A thoroughbred.

The only thing he needs is,.. to be and feel trusted.

Of course he is not s false nine.

And the competition in a world powerhouse like Liverpool is fierce.

But if Slot, could find the way to give him the needed time, then...

KABOOM...!!

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Oct 1Liked by Andrew Beasley

Great article! He certainly is unfortunate on many occasions, so his fortunes hopefully turn soon. Did you come across some data regarding his finishing of big chances? My guess would be that this is the area he is most erratic in. He also rarely tries to round the keeper in 1v1 situations which he would be well equipped for given his physicality.

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I’ll get back to you with the up to date big chance figures tomorrow. However, I do know that towards the end of last season he had one of the worst records in the data era.

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Right, I've got the numbers, which date back to 2011/12. Among the 29 players who've had at least 83 non-penalty big chances, Son is top for conversion: 50.4% against a league average of 38%. Proves the point of his inclusion in the article, and then some.

But Núñez... he has had 59 so far, which expands the sample to 52 players. With 13 converted, Darwin (22%) is bottom of the pile as I thought. Benteke is next worst, and he's over nine per cent better. Núñez stands alone, in the worst way possible in terms of converting gilt-edged opportunities.

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Oct 2·edited Oct 2Liked by Andrew Beasley

Beez - thanks. I know we covered this on a rolling basis on TTT at some point last season. There's randomness in scoring but a 22% conversion is no big return on a potential £85m investment for a forward. I wonder if we had paid £85m for Son, albeit for 3-4 seasons whether Liverpool would have won the title and then some. Yet even Son had a long dry spell so god knows.

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Darwin's 60 minute contribution against Bologna (2 Oct):

- Completed four of his 12 passes (33%);

- Lost five of his seven duels

- Two shots off target

- One offside (avoidable as was a big chance)

- Gave away the ball 11 times.

The last stat is a little unfair as he had a number of difficult balls from Allison with his back to goal. He worked as hard as he could. But overall was not as effective.

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I didn't see the game in full so can't really comment, but, um, not good.

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Oct 3·edited Oct 3Liked by Andrew Beasley

You saw I commented on Nunez on TTT. David Lynch has written an article about this being a make or break season. I think the fact is he scored a screamer against Bournemouth and had a decent game. A game later we're again questioning is he good enough. I think he has the potential but the lad isn't consistent enough yet. Sometimes you have to move and find a better fit at this stage of a career. Salah was 25 when he arrived. Nunez is 25 and maybe he needs the same. We have several months to find out. I hope he does but the head says maybe not.

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